reply Sat, 07/21/2012 - 17:39 | 2639284new A Man without Q...
Even in the current state, the Spanish banks face realistic losses of €250bn. They have about €100bn of loan loss reserves, meaning the proposed bailout is not enough. Add to that, the federal government is out of money and the autonomous regions are in a huge hole, with a collapse in revenues and too many debts obscured over recent years. A full 50% of state spending comes out at the regional level, so the Spanish people are going to feel the consequences very soon.
In my view, there is not enough capacity in the EFSF even to cover Spain.
Since the inception of the Euro, the nation has gorged itself on cheap debt, which combined with a construction boom hid the fact that what little industry there was has been destroyed by the rise of the emerging markets. The productive economy was withering on the vine, while the country enoyed a debt fueled consumption boom. They cannot pay yesterday's bills and eat today. Of course, they will blame foreigners, blame bankers and especially the Germans, but the real problem is the corrupt and bloated public sector, who won't fix the problem because they can't accept it is them.
As for the solution, I genuinely don't see one. The warning signs were ignored by the European Union, the IMF, everyone went along with the fantasy, because it was so much easier to overlook. Even now, they somehow think you can stabilise real estate prices and allow banks to clear their books in an orderly fashion. The reality is, nobody wants to buy an unfinished apartment in the desert next to a golf course that was never built, especially someone with no money and no job. And without the cosy relationshp with the Cajas, the insolvency of the local governments is going to be quickly revealed.